Today the Iowa Supreme Court upheld the rights of homosexual couples to get married. When I first read this, I was pleased, but almost immediately I took a more sober tone. Work on a constitutional amendment to take away that right will begin almost immediately, and I figured it will certainly pass. After all, the people of Iowa already passed the marriage ban that was struck down in today’s ruling.
As the day went on, I became more optimistic. Unlike California, which was able to pass Prop 8 very quickly, in Iowa the constitution is designed to slow amendments. Two consecutive legislatures and then the people have to vote for it. The soonest this could get to a vote of the people is 2011. So, if we forward to 2011 and it is just like today, does the amendment pass? I think so. But 2011 is unlikely to be like today.
Supporters of gay marriage aren’t likely to change their mind. Supporters, by definition, have already changed their minds away from the status quo. Those opposing on religious grounds are never going to change. That leaves a group that are against it because of cultural conditioning or because of an honest intellectual belief that it’s bad for families and society. Those are the group that’s going to change over the next two years. Gay couples are going to get married and continue living their lives all over Iowa and elsewhere. And after two years, a lot of people are going to look around and find little has changed. The world won’t have ended, and these people will realize that maybe gay marriage isn’t so bad. They will have shifted their view based on actual experience and observation.
The other thing that will change in two years is that more states will legalize gay marriage. It’s going to happen. The rocks at the top of the mountain have started to fall, and they’re gathering momentum every year. So by 2011, when there’s 5 or 10 states with gay marriage, fence-sitting Iowans won’t feel like radicals.
I’m optimistic that these changes will be enough to defeat a constitutional amendment. Then we just have to work on Nebraska and the rest of the country. But the times, they are a changin’.
Personal note: I was married in Iowa 11 and some years ago. It’s nice to know that now anyone else can do what I did.